Q1/2017 was pretty much what I expected it to be. Markets moved mainly sideways and dividend income was slightly better than expected, some of that is explained by delayed registration of Q4/2016 dividends.
Q1/2017
Dividends received during first quarter year over year in EUR (before taxes).
It’s getting increasingly difficult to find decent valuations especially to initiate new positions. I’ve been still considering hydrogen energy as a potential new position. Originally I was looking into automotive sector with hydrogen capabilities but lately I’ve been considering supply chain position (namely NEL in Oslo exchange). It’s a sector I’m still struggling with but might initiate a position if the price is right.
Fiscal year 2016 is now officially over and what a year it was. UK voted in favour of brexit, US presidential election won by Donald Trump, Syrian conflict (among others), terrorism, rising tension between US and Russia and massive amount of refuges. Surprising enough the year ended with a bull market (especially after the US election). Portfolio performed almost too well and closed almost in all time high valuation.
Q4/2016 PerformanceFY2016 Performance
Historic Performance After FY2016
Fourth quarter dividend performance illustrated year over year (pre-tax, in EUR).
I managed to pretty much follow the strategy I’ve created for myself. Perhaps only open issue was the sale of Deere Company. It remains to be seen if that was the right thing to do. I just couldn’t justify all time high valuation for cyclical company near the bottom of the cycle. I still think there’s a chance it can be bought back in the 92 USD range during FY2017 but I could be wrong there.
Given the circumstances, it’s now very difficult to predict anything for the next year. Major correction is inevitable but it’s pretty much impossible to time it. Personally I feel that it won’t take place next year but perhaps in 2018. I suspect that there’s a smaller correction during next year (in 10% range on index level) but that’s not so relevant for me. In case of major correction I’ve enough ammunition in place to take advantage of it. This ammunition contains possibilities to increase debt significantly, add some capital from reserves, sell and reallocate funds from my bond substitute positions (e.g. Coca-Cola and Colgate-Palmolive) if the correction is very asymmetrical. Other than that I’ll keep my strategy as it is. If there aren’t any meaningful valuations available, I’ll reduce the current debt.
Q3 is now officially over. This quarter was dominated with events such as the upcoming presidential election in US and speculation of Deutche Bank going under. There wasn’t that much happening in the portfolio. Value was pretty much moving sideways (not that I really care for the quarter level swings). Dividend income was as expected. There were perhaps a bit unusually many purchases as I added to my positions on Nordea, Telia Company, Coca-Cola Company and Telenor. On top of that I opened new position on Betsson AB and closed my position on Raisio Plc.
Portfolio value during Q3/2016
Third quarter dividend performance illustrated year over year (pre-tax, in EUR).
Another quarter has passed so it’s time to summarise the results. This time around it was a little bit unusual quarter as the still ongoing Brexit saga unveiled during the last week of this quarter. Significant drop in markets was very normal result of such an event but the following days surprised with a steep trend upwards. Portfolio and some of the market is trading near all time high levels so direction during the next months remains to be seen.
The dividend income during this time period was as expected. Steady increase fuelled by new investments and better yields in key holdings. Graph contains pre taxes dividend statistics compared quarter to quarter and half to half for years 2015 and 2016.
Another quarter and fiscal year has passed with following statistics:
411 USD received as dividends during Q4 (244 USD during Q4/2014)
420 NOK received as dividends during Q4 (0 NOK during Q4/2014)
8 purchases made during Q4 (10 during Q4/2014)
Total dividends for FY2015 were 458,32 EUR, 1455 NOK and 1360,81 USD (123 EUR and 584,32 USD during FY2014)
There are no major changes for strategy in FY2016. Environment is getting a bit challenging as we are, in my opinion, moving towards the end of an cycle. I expect to add steadily on cyclical companies and also those which are a bit underweight positions at the moment. Valuations might slow down the balancing of the portfolio even though I’m not fully trying to time the market. Having said that, I still have loose buy zones I try to enforce.
This quarter was full of market turbulence: worries about China slowing down, FED hiking the interest rates, commodities taking a beating. Market value of the portfolio decreased by 6.81 percent during this quarter. Compared to the Q3 last year, there was significant increase in the dividends received. Compared to the previous quarter though, there was a slight decrease. This is largely explained by the fact that BBL paid a dividend of 74,40 USD during Q2 but not in Q3 (they use a semi-annual dividend policy). Considering this, the overall performance was satisfactory.
Passive income during Q2 (before taxes) was as follows:
375,96 USD compared to 173,89 USD for Q3/2014 and 333,63 USD in Q2/2015.
Update: Removed false information since BBL paid during Q3 after all. Transaction didn’t show in my brokerage account until today.
Quite normal quarter for the portfolio but not so much for the economy in general. Situation in Greece could be described as interesting. It remains to be seen what’s the actual impact for euro zone. Personally I consider this as the opening act for the political tensions raising from huge debt loads . These are the reasons largely explaining my USD heavy portfolio build up. As I expected to report in euros for the years to come, it will be interesting to see how all this plays out. During the past weeks most of the stocks in Europe have been hit, at least modestly, but there was very little drama for my portfolio. The train is still rolling. It’s worth to mention that I had two spin-offs in my portfolio as South32 Ltd. (BHP) and Baxalta (Baxter International Inc.) entered the portfolio.
Passive income during Q2 (before taxes) was as follows:
Dividends received during the first quarter of fiscal year 2015 (taxes not included):
240.10 USD (Q1/2014: 45,90 USD)
186 EUR (Q1/2014: 0 EUR)
Market value increased by 14,90%. US dividends decreased marginally from previous quarter (244,30 USD) mainly due to inactivity during Q4 and because of the temporarily suspended dividend by NASDAQ:ARCP. Latter one I expect to be restored during Q2/2015.
Total dividends received (before taxes) during Q4/2014 were 244,30 USD. Overall portfolio performance during 2014 was above expectations as the market value in euros increased by 20,70% (including increased valuations, dividends and changes in EUR/USD exchange rate). Total dividends for the whole year were 123 EUR and 584,32 USD.
This was first full year for this portfolio. Strategy for the new year shall remain the same unless political situation offers extraordinary circumstances. Oil prices and NOK (currency, not stock) valuation is something I have my eye on in 2015. Otherwise I expect mainly to add on existing positions and perhaps open one or two new positions depending on the market situation and valuations.
