Dividend Results

Third quarter is over and done with. Major events impacting the portfolio during this quarter were the still ongoing tensions with North Korea, Nordea deciding to propose moving HQ to Finland and Fortum buying a major stake in Uniper. All this didn’t cause much fluctuations in portfolio value, rather minor swings back and forth and closing with 1,32% gains. As a preparation to the Nordea decision I’ve built a bit overweight position on the company via Sampo. I don’t see that as a huge problem as both are quality companies which act as a hedge against eventually rising interest rates. Therefore it’s not likely that I would sell neither one unless there’s a major overvaluation which would justify such a thing. However I did sell my stake in Fortum with a nice profit. News on the  Uniper deal drove the share price up and since this deal increases the involved political even further, I didn’t see any problem in selling out. I might be interested in buying back the shares around 14 EUR (sold at 17,20 EUR) per share but that’s a big if. Political risk was significant before but this will take it to a whole new level.

Another short term target was to eliminate some of the debt which was a bit on the high side and above my target level. Selling my stake on Fortum made this possible even though I initiated a new position on Apple Inc. In this market situation I’d be inclined to reducing the debt even further but there are some interesting valuations to pursue as well. As I don’t see a clear mechanism for major market correction (as I ever would if one was coming) or quick changes in the interest rates, I might just as well keep the debt level target as is and keep investing as long as I can find reasonable valuations in quality companies.

Pre-tax dividends were 680,11 USD compared to 487,01 USD year before. Nothing special there, pretty much as expected. Perhaps the most positive thing was the increase from BHP Billiton which is turning around nicely. Last year they paid 39,20 USD for my 140 ADR shares and this year much nicer 120,40 USD which I expect to go up next year.

Links:

https://www.ft.com/content/af24ddac-a2d9-11e7-b797-b61809486fe2?mhq5j=e5

https://www.ft.com/content/4fc74af4-33f6-11e7-bce4-9023f8c0fd2e?mhq5j=e5

Second quarter is gone without any major issues. During this quarter I decided to move the portfolio into a conditional maintenance phase. With this I’m aiming to reduce the portfolio debt which is on the high side after a recent debt restructuring. Conditional in that sense that I will anyway buy additional shares if companies in my watch list drop below my thresholds. While waiting for that I’ll use majority of new capital to pay down the debt and in addition make few mainly small maintenance purchases. Once the debt level hits the targeted 0.1 D/E ratio I’ll replan my purchases. Given the current market situation I would kind of prefer having the debt ratio at 0.05 level or even eliminate the debt completely.

Q1/2017 was pretty much what I expected it to be. Markets moved mainly sideways and dividend income was slightly better than expected, some of that is explained by delayed registration of Q4/2016 dividends.

Dividends received during first quarter year over year in EUR (before taxes).

It’s getting increasingly difficult to find decent valuations especially to initiate new positions. I’ve been still considering hydrogen energy as a potential new position. Originally I was looking into automotive sector with hydrogen capabilities but lately I’ve been considering supply chain position (namely NEL in Oslo exchange). It’s a sector I’m still struggling with but might initiate a position if the price is right.

Q3 is now officially over. This quarter was dominated with events such as the upcoming presidential election in US and speculation of Deutche Bank going under. There wasn’t that much happening in the portfolio. Value was pretty much moving sideways (not that I really care for the quarter level swings). Dividend income was as expected. There were perhaps a bit unusually many purchases as I added to my positions on Nordea, Telia Company, Coca-Cola Company and Telenor. On top of that I opened new position on Betsson AB and closed my position on Raisio Plc.

Third quarter dividend performance illustrated year over year (pre-tax, in EUR).

Metrics for Q1/2016:

• Received pre taxes dividends 262,40 EUR and 378,04 USD totalling 606,17 EUR compared to 398,49 EUR (186,00 EUR + 240,10 USD) the year before
• 7 buys and 3 sales (all buybacks)

Another quarter and fiscal year has passed with following statistics:

• 411 USD received as dividends during Q4 (244 USD during Q4/2014)
• 420 NOK received as dividends during Q4 (0 NOK during Q4/2014)
• 8 purchases made during Q4 (10 during Q4/2014)
• Total dividends for FY2015 were 458,32 EUR, 1455 NOK and 1360,81 USD (123 EUR and 584,32 USD during FY2014)

There are no major changes for strategy in FY2016. Environment is getting a bit challenging as we are, in my opinion, moving towards the end of an cycle. I expect to add steadily on cyclical companies and also those which are a bit underweight positions at the moment. Valuations might slow down the balancing of the portfolio even though I’m not fully trying to time the market. Having said that, I still have loose buy zones I try to enforce.

This quarter was full of market turbulence: worries about China slowing down, FED hiking the interest rates, commodities taking a beating. Market value of the portfolio decreased by 6.81 percent during this quarter. Compared to the Q3 last year, there was significant increase in the dividends received. Compared to the previous quarter though, there was a slight decrease. This is largely explained by the fact that BBL paid a dividend of 74,40 USD during Q2 but not in Q3 (they use a semi-annual dividend policy). Considering this, the overall performance was satisfactory.

Passive income during Q2 (before taxes) was as follows:

375,96 USD compared to 173,89 USD for Q3/2014 and 333,63 USD in Q2/2015.

Update: Removed false information since BBL paid during Q3 after all. Transaction didn’t show in my brokerage account until today.

Quite normal quarter for the portfolio but not so much for the economy in general. Situation in Greece could be described as interesting. It remains to be seen what’s the actual impact for euro zone. Personally I consider this as the opening act for the political tensions raising from huge debt loads . These are the reasons largely explaining my USD heavy portfolio build up. As I expected to report in euros for the years to come, it will be interesting to see how all this plays out. During the past weeks most of the stocks in Europe have been hit, at least modestly, but there was very little drama for my portfolio. The train is still rolling. It’s worth to mention that I had two spin-offs in my portfolio as South32 Ltd. (BHP) and Baxalta (Baxter International Inc.) entered the portfolio.

Passive income during Q2 (before taxes) was as follows:

•  272,32 EUR compared to 123 EUR for Q2/2014
• 1035 NOK compared to 0 NOK for Q2/2014
• 333,63 USD compared to 120,23 USD for Q2/2014